Italian Open 2025 Preview & Predictions: Focus on Sinner's Return, Swiatek Form Issues Remain
Sabalenka favourite to win women's title while Alcaraz will be gunning to clinch the men's tournament.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner returns to competition at the Italian Open after serving a three‑month doping ban.
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The 23‑year‑old did not relinquish the top ranking thanks to his successful Australian Open title defence in January—his only appearance of the season so far. Home crowds will be eager to see whether their man can keep his unbeaten 2025 record intact on the Foro Italico clay.
Six‑time Rome champion Novak Djokovic is absent after first‑round exits in Monte‑Carlo and Madrid, leaving him win‑less on clay heading into Roland‑Garros.
By contrast, Carlos Alcaraz—Monte‑Carlo winner and Barcelona runner‑up—returns from injury with designs on a first Italian crown and a seventh ATP Masters 1000 title.
A Sinner‑Alcaraz showdown looms in the men’s draw, while on the women’s side Aryna Sabalenka—fresh off her Madrid triumph—looks poised to clash once more with three‑time Rome champ Iga Swiatek.
Men’s Draw Preview
Sinner’s Path to a Fifth Masters 1000 Title
Sinner could open against Mariano Navone, face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the last 32, and meet Madrid semi‑finalist Francisco Cerúndolo in the round of 16. Quarter‑final danger comes in the shape of Madrid champion Casper Ruud.
Ruud Lies in Wait
Clay brings the best out of Casper Ruud and it is no surprise that the Norwegian claimed his maiden ATP 1000 title on his favorite surface on Sunday, winning the Madrid Open by edging out the in-form Jack Draper in a three-set final.
Having moved eight places in the ranking to no. 7 this week, Ruud will be a force to reckon with in Italy as he aims for back-to-back glory on dirt. His best in Rome so far includes three semifinal appearances, but he will be hoping to go beyond that stage for the first time in his sixth attempt.
The sixth seed, who has a first-round bye, is likely to meet Alexander Bublik in the second round and faces a potential third round against local star Matteo Berrettini. Twelfth seed Ben Shelton is a possible fourth-round opponent, while top seed Jannik Sinner is a potential quarterfinal opponent.
Ruud has never won a set against Sinner in their past three meetings, but given his form, this could be the best opportunity for the Norwegian to turn the tables on the Italian.
However, despite his three months absence, we are still backing Sinner to go deep. He is likely to meet Mariano Navone in the second round and could face Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the round of 32, before a possible meeting with Madrid semifinalist Francisco Cerundolo in the round of 16.
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Which Wimbledon winner also made it to successive Australian Open singles finals in 1986 & 1987 but lost both times? (Get more such quizzes here)
Draper Aims for Another Deep Run
After making the final in Madrid without dropping a set, Jack Draper showed that he can also be a threat on clay. The Briton is enjoying the best season of his career so far. He claimed his maiden ATP 1000 title in Indian Wells, finished runner-up in Madrid and Doha and reached a career high ranking of no. 5 this week.
We expect his season to keep getting better. The lefty is in the bottom half. He may face Luciano Darderi in the second round, Sebastian Baez in a potential third round and ninth seed and Barcelona champion Holger Rune in a potential fourth round.
If he goes through, Draper could set-up a quarterfinal meeting against third seed Alcaraz. The Spaniard leads the head-to-head 3-2, but in 2025 they have won 1-apiece, with Draper winning the most recent of their contests in Indian Wells. But be it Draper or Rune, we expect Alcaraz to make the semifinal.
Musetti Targets a Home‑Soil Breakthrough
Back‑to‑back finals in Monte‑Carlo (runner‑up) and Madrid (semi‑finals) have elevated Lorenzo Musetti into the top ten. Rome, however, has never seen him past the last 16. A revitalised Daniil Medvedev could block him in R4, and defending champion Alexander Zverev lurks in the quarter‑finals. Home support and current confidence make Musetti a genuine semi‑final contender.
Mensik Could Surprise a Few
Nineteen-year-old Jakub Mensik stunned the world with his run to the Miami Open title earlier this year. He seems to have brought that form to clay as well as he reached the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open last week.
Seeded no. 20 Mensik could face the inconsistent Andrey Rublev in a possible third round and the fourth seed Taylor Fritz in a potential round of 16. Both matches seem hugely challenging for the Czech, but given the number of surprises we have witnessed in recent tournaments, we think Mensik’s got the potential to be the surprise package in Rome.
What’s more, he has a 2-0 head-to-head record against Rublev and is 1-1 against Fritz, having won their most recent battle in the Miami semifinal.
If Mensik makes the last eight stage he will most likely be up against seventh seed Alex de Minaur, who is in decent form and enjoys a 2-0 head-to-head record against Mensik. We think the top half will witness a Sinner v De Minaur semifinal, while the bottom half will see an Alcaraz v Musetti semifinal.
Predicted Men’s Quarter‑Finals
Sinner vs Ruud
De Minaur vs Mensik / Fritz
Alcaraz vs Draper / Rune
Musetti vs Zverev
Predicted Men’s Semi‑Finals
Sinner vs De Minaur
Alcaraz vs Musetti
Women’s Draw Preview
Sabalenka & Swiatek Could Set Up Blockbuster Final
After winning the last two WTA 1000 titles in Miami and Madrid, Aryna Sabalenka will be looking to keep the form going in Rome as she aims to win her maiden Italian Open title.
She is likely to open her campaign against Anastasia Potapova in the second round and could face Sofia Kenin and Marta Kostyuk in the third and fourth rounds respectively. 2023 champion and 11th seed Elena Rybakina is a potential quarterfinal opponent for the Belarusian.
Although she is not in the best of forms, we think her past experience stands her a better chance than the players in her section of the draw, which includes eighth seed Qinwen Zheng.
Sabalenka’s potential semifinal opponent could be either fourth seed Coco Gauff, who returned to form in Madrid, finishing runner-up to Sabalenka; or the 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who won back-to-back titles in Dubai and Indian Wells earlier this year.
Svitolina Could Be a Threat for Swiatek
In the bottom half, we expect three-time champion Swiatek to go deep once again, but she could face some tough opponents en route. One of them could be Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian is 9-1 from her last 10 matches and that includes the title in Rouen and a run to the semifinals in Madrid last week.
She could set-up a possible fourth round against Swiatek, who leads Svitolina 3-1 head-to-head. We expect that to be a close contest with Swiatek edging out the Ukrainian.
In the quarterfinals Swiatek could face fifth seed Madison Keys for the second straight tournament.
In the semis, Swiatek could either meet third seed Jessica Pegula or sixth seed Jasmine Paolini. The latter has been inconsistent this season, but home support could inspire her to go deep in Rome.
Stuttgart champion Jelena Ostapenko is in Paolini’s section of the draw and if she starts off well, she could well make the semis, a scenario Swiatek would desperately want to avoid. The Pole is 0-6 head-to-head against Ostapenko and is 0-2 in 2025.
Osaka’s Quiet Threat
Newly crowned Saint‑Malo champion Naomi Osaka opens versus Sara Errani, then might meet Paula Badosa, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Keys in succession. While unseeded, the four‑time major winner has the weapons to reach the second week.
Predicted Women’s Quarter‑Finals
Sabalenka vs Rybakina
Gauff vs Andreeva
Paolini / Ostapenko vs Pegula
Keys / Osaka vs Swiatek
Final Word
Sinner’s long‑awaited return and a potential Sabalenka‑Swiatek blockbuster ensure Rome 2025 is brimming with intrigue. If the favourites hold, expect fireworks on championship weekend at the Foro Italico.
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