Madrid Open 2025 Preview, Predictions: Alcaraz, Sabalenka Prime Contenders
Can Swiatek shrug off Ostapenko's hold & Djokovic finally win a title?
The 2025 Madrid Open promises high-stakes drama on both the ATP and WTA tours. With Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka leading the charge, the tournament features a mix of returning champions and rising stars.
The men’s draw is headlined by a potential semifinal clash between Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, while the women’s draw sets up a possible fourth-round showdown between Iga Swiatek and Jelena Ostapenko. Here is what to expect from the tournament.
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Rune Eyes Deep Run
After Holger Rune’s stunning success in Barcelona, the Dane has suddenly become a player of interest in Madrid. Can he follow that triumph with another solid display in the Spanish capital, where he has never gone beyond the third round in two previous attempts?
A Rune vs. Alcaraz final is very much a possibility. But despite his form, things won’t be easy for the 21-year-old world no. 9.
Rune is likely to begin against Flavio Cobolli in the second round, with Brandon Nakashima and Daniil Medvedev potential next hurdles. If he advances, he could face Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals — just like in Barcelona.
We’re backing the 14th seed Norwegian over third seed Taylor Fritz in their section due to his superior clay record and greater match practice on the surface. Ruud leads Rune 6–2, but lost their most recent clash last week. He’ll be eager to avenge that defeat in Madrid.
Given Rune’s runner-up finish in Indian Wells and title in Barcelona, his confidence is sky-high. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he narrows that head-to-head gap even further.
Rune could then face top seed Alexander Zverev in a potential semifinal. The German, who had struggled since his Australian Open final run, finally found form in Munich last week, winning his first title of the season by defeating Ben Shelton.
Back-in-form Zverev to Reach Semis
A dangerous clay court player, Zverev is chasing a third title in Madrid, having won in 2018 and 2021 and finished runner-up in 2022. He lost in the round of 16 the last two years, but this time, a deep run and a semifinal spot look likely.
Zverev’s expected to open against Jaume Munar, with 28th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina a possible third-round opponent.
No. 13 seed Arthur Fils, who’s been in excellent form—reaching the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte Carlo, and the semis in Barcelona—could face Zverev in the fourth round. But his quarterfinal streak may end here.
Zverev’s possible quarterfinal opponent will be either defending champion and 7th seed Andrey Rublev or Ben Shelton, whom he beat in the Munich final.
Miami Open winner Jakub Mensik is also in that section, but we expect Rublev and Shelton to clash in the fourth round, with Shelton coming through, given his greater consistency this season.
Third Madrid Title in Sight for Alcaraz
With a Zverev-Rune semifinal looking likely in the top half, the bottom half will be headlined by second seed Carlos Alcaraz.
A winner in 2022 and 2023, Alcaraz missed a Madrid hat-trick last year after bowing out to eventual champion Rublev in the quarterfinals. He’ll be aiming to reclaim his crown this season and is in solid clay form, having won in Monte Carlo and finished runner-up in Barcelona.
Alcaraz is expected to begin his campaign against Zizou Bergs in the second round, with Jiri Lehecka a possible third-round opponent. No. 15 seed Grigor Dimitrov could meet him in the fourth round, while Monte Carlo finalist Lorenzo Musetti could be a potential quarterfinal opponent.
How Far Can Djokovic Go?
Fourth seed Novak Djokovic is seeded to meet Alcaraz in the semifinals—but will the Serb make it that far? A semifinalist at the Australian Open and a finalist in Miami, Djokovic has shown he’s not done just yet, but the lack of trophies in 2025 is a strong sign that he’s no longer the favorite wherever he goes.
Djokovic is likely to begin his campaign against Matteo Arnaldi in the second round, with Sebastian Baez and Frances Tiafoe being potential third- and fourth-round opponents, respectively.
No. 24 seed and Barcelona semifinalist Karen Khachanov could be a quarterfinal opponent, and the Russian has the potential to end Djokovic’s run in Madrid. If not, Djokovic may fall to Alcaraz in the semifinals.
Men’s Madrid Open Predictions
Quarterfinals:
Zverev v Shelton
Rune v Ruud
Djokovic v Khachanov
Alcaraz v Musetti / De Minaur
Semifinals:
Zverev v Rune
Alcaraz v Djokovic / Khachanov
Tournament Favorite: Alcaraz
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Sabalenka Eyes Title No. 3 in Madrid
Aryna Sabalenka, who lost this year’s Stuttgart Open final to Jelena Ostapenko on Monday, heads to Madrid as the top seed. She won the title in the Spanish capital in 2021 and 2023, but fell to Iga Swiatek in a nail-biting final last year.
Sabalenka is the top favorite for the Madrid title this year. The Belarusian has reached the final of her last three tournaments—finishing runner-up in Indian Wells, winning in Miami, and losing the Stuttgart final for the fourth time in her career.
She has a first-round bye and will meet a qualifier in the second round. No. 28 seed Elise Mertens is a likely third-round opponent, while 15th seed Amanda Anisimova could await in the fourth round.
In the quarterfinals, Sabalenka may face eighth seed Qinwen Zheng, but the Chinese player has lacked consistency this season. That could open the door for someone like Marta Kostyuk or Charleston runner-up Sofia Kenin.
Weighing Pegula, Paolini and Alexandrova’s Chances
Third seed and 2022 finalist Jessica Pegula is seeded to meet Sabalenka in the semifinals, but several hurdles stand between the American and a final-four spot. A finalist in Miami and winner in Charleston, Pegula has been in strong form this year but suffered a shock loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Stuttgart quarterfinals.
Alexandrova leads Pegula 2-1 in 2025 and 3-2 overall. A fourth clash this year could come in the fourth round, with Pegula tipped to get quick revenge over the Russian.
In the quarterfinals, Pegula is expected to face sixth seed Jasmine Paolini—if the Italian isn’t stopped by Rouen champion Elina Svitolina in a potential fourth-round clash. We expect 17th seed Svitolina, who has a first-round bye, to win her second-round match and possibly upset the inconsistent Elena Rybakina in the third round.
Paolini is coming off back-to-back semifinal finishes in Miami and Stuttgart. We believe she’s in better form and more likely to prevail over Svitolina, Rybakina, or any other round-of-16 opponent.
The Italian is expected to open against Katerina Siniakova, with Magda Linette likely in the round of 32, followed by a fourth-round clash against either Svitolina or Rybakina. Paolini’s current consistency should see her through to the quarters, where she may fall in a tight match to Pegula, who holds a 5-0 record against her.
If Pegula falls to Alexandrova—who will have the psychological edge—we’d back Paolini to advance, despite Alexandrova’s 0-2 record against the Italian.
Swiatek May Run Into Nemesis Ostapenko Again
In the bottom half, while second seed Iga Swiatek and fourth seed Coco Gauff are expected to meet in the semis, the atypical form of both players makes us believe they may struggle to get that far.
Twenty-third seed and Stuttgart champion Jelena Ostapenko, who improved her head-to-head record against Swiatek to 6-0 last week, is expected to meet the Pole in the fourth round.
It is quite likely that the defending champion may not progress beyond that stage. (Swiatek could also be tested by Alexandra Eala in the second round—if Eala wins her opener. The Filipina shocked Swiatek at the Miami Open earlier this year.)
Ostapenko’s possible quarterfinal opponent would be fifth seed Madison Keys, a semifinalist last year. Keys has looked sharp this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see her make another deep run.
Who could Keys or Ostapenko face in the semis? Based on form, seventh seed Mirra Andreeva is our top pick.
The 17-year-old won back-to-back titles in Dubai and Indian Wells, but has struggled in her last two tournaments, winning just one match each in Miami and Stuttgart. That said, she is a strong clay-court player, as evidenced by her run to the French Open semifinals last year.
She was also a quarterfinalist in Madrid in 2024, and we expect her to roar back to form here—possibly reaching the semis by taking down Gauff in the last eight.
Women’s Madrid Open Predictions
Quarterfinals:
Sabalenka v Kenin
Pegula / Alexandrova v Paolini
Andreeva v Gauff
Keys v Ostapenko
Semifinals:
Sabalenka v Pegula / Paolini / Alexandrova
Keys / Ostapenko v Andreeva
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