Monte-Carlo Masters 2024: Top Predictions & Observations
Who will go on to win the first Masters 1000 title of the season on clay? That and more predictions from the Monte-Carlo Masters.
The 2024 Monte-Carlo Masters is upon us with the draw out on Friday, April 5. Almost all the top players will be in action but Rafael Nadal fans might be in for a bit of a heartache after the Spaniard announced his withdrawal from the tournament.
Next week will be highlighted by the return of top guns to the men’s field as action shifts to Monte Carlo for the first ATP 1000 tournament of the season on clay.
Below we share some of our insights and predictions based on current form, past performances and the history of the players on clay and Monte Carlo.
Can Djokovic Regain Momentum?
Two-time champion Novak Djokovic is the top seed. He will be playing for the first time since his shock third round defeat to Luca Nardi at the Indian Wells Open.
His best this year was a semifinal finish at the Australian Open and he brings an 8-3 season record into the tournament.
A 40-time Masters 1000 champion, the Serb won the Monte Carlo titles in 2013 and 2015 and was the runner-up in 2009 and 2012.
However, in recent years he has struggled to perform in the Principality, exiting the tournament in the third round in 2021, the second round in 2022 and the third round in 2023. In fact he has reached just two quarterfinals since his triumphant run in 2015.
Neither those numbers nor his current form are in his favour and therefore it won’t be a surprise if we see the top seed struggling once again.
Djokovic will begin his campaign against either Roman Safiullin or a qualifier and could meet Lorenzo Museti in the third round.
It was Musetti, who had knocked out Djokovic in the third round last year, before falling to Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinal.
Musetti will begin his campaign against 13th seed Taylor Fritz, who has been off colour since winning the Delray Beach Open in February.
Last year, Fritz was a semifinalist and in 2022, he was a quarterfinalist. So he will be hoping to do well again but faces a tough opponent in Musetti in the opener.
Returning to Djokovic. If the 36-year-old world no. 1 makes a fine start and defeats his first two opponents he could be facing the defending champion Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinal and if he wins that as well, he could be facing the third seed Carlos Alcaraz in a potential semifinal.
Alcaraz-Ruud Quarterfinal Looks Highly Likely
Ranked no. 3 in the world, Alcaraz has already claimed an ATP 1000 title this year, beating Daniil Medvedev in the final of the Indian Wells Open. He also reached the last eight in Miami, before falling to eventual runner-up Grigor Dimitrov.
Alcaraz will be eager put that disappointment behind him and make a strong statement on clay, where he has won 7 of his 13 titles. The 20-year-old Spaniard is not too familiar with Monte Carlos though, having played here just once before, when he lost in the second round in 2022.
He begins his campaign against either Felix Auger-Aliassime or a qualifier and could face Marcos Giron in a potential third round.
We expect Alcaraz to reach the last eight, where he could face the in-form Casper Ruud. The eighth seed Norwegian will begin his campaign against Alejandro Tabilo or a qualifier and then could face a dangerous Huber Hurkacz in the third round.
While writing this article, Ruud was getting ready for yet another semifinal in 2024.
The Los Cabos and Acapulco runner-up had won his first two matches in Estoril and was set to take on Pedro Martinez in the semifinal.
Given his form, Ruud could make things difficult for Alcaraz, but the fact that the latter has a 4-0 record against the Norwegian makes the Spaniard a favourite if the two were to meet.
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Momentum With Sinner, But Clay Record May Hamper Progress
The bottom half will be led by world no. 2 Jannik Sinner. The 22-year-old is in exceptional form this year, having lost just one of his 23 matches.
That success includes his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and a second career Masters 1000 title in Miami.
Sinner, who also won the Rotterdam Open title, lost his only match of the season to Alcaraz in the Indian Wells semifinal. With a player in such dominant form, the expectations are always quite high, even on a surface where he has had little success compared to other surfaces.
Sinner’s only clay court title came in Umag in 2022, where he beat Alcaraz for the title. It remains the only clay tournament where he has made it to a final.
Going by that stat, one could say that Sinner may struggle to win the title on clay. But sometimes it’s the current form that can inspire players to do well even in tournaments where they have struggled in the past.
Sinner’s best in Monte Carlo was a semifinal finish last year. He was also a quarterfinalist two years ago.
This year he opens against either Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Sebastian Korda and could meet Rio and Santiago champion Sebastian Baez in a potential third round.
If he does go past his first two opponents, the second seed could face either last year’s runner-up Holger Rune or the in-form Grigor Dimitrov in a potential quarterfinal.
The road ahead seems a rocky one, but Sinner is in stunning form this year and could potentially meet fourth seed Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals.
Medvedev, who was a quarterfinalist last year and a semifinalist in 2019, has played four tournaments this year, finishing runner-up at the Australian Open and the Indian Wells Open and as a semifinalist in Dubai and Miami.
He begins his Monte Carlo campaign against either Gael Monfils or Jordan Thompson in the second round and could face Karen Khachanov in a potential third round.
If all top seeds sail through, Medvedev could face fifth seed Alexander Zverev in a potential quarterfinal.
Three Dark Horses
Keep an Eye on Rublev
The Russian will be looking to defend his title this year. Although he didn’t have a good time on court in March, falling in the third round in Indian Wells and the second round in Miami, he has a fantastic record in Monte-Carlo and will be looking to build on that.
Apart from winning the title last year, the Russian also finished runner-up to Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2021. The Russian is 15-6 so far this year and has 1 title so far.
Berrettini is Back
Matteo Berrettini seems to have recovered well from the foot injury that saw him withdraw from most tournaments in the first quarter.
The Italian however seems to have struck form in Marrakech where he was slated to face Mariano Navonne in the semifinal at the time of writing. However, Berretini begins his campaign against Miomir Kecmanovic in the first round and could face Grigor Dimitrov in a potential second round.
Red-Hot Dimitrov Could Continue to Impress on Clay
With a 20-5 season record, Grigor Dimitrov is one of the most successful men’s player this year. He ended a five year title drought in Brisbane and also reached the finals in Marseille and Miami.
The Bulgarian could continue that form on clay. We expect him to reach at least the third round. There is a good chance of him reaching the last eight at the expense of Holger Rune.
Top Monte-Carlo Predictions
A Djokovic-Alcaraz semifinal seems far-fetched. We could see an upset in the quarterfinals with Rublev taking down the top seed.
We also think Alcaraz has a better chance of winning the title on the clay court of Monte-Carlo than Sinner.
QF Predictions
Djokovic v Rublev
Alcaraz v Ruud
Medvedev v Zverev
Sinner v Dimitrov
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