Predictions from Charleston, Houston, Estoril, Bogota & Marrakesh!
What does the tennis week hold for us as the action shifts to clay.
After a month of gruelling tennis on the hard courts of Indian Wells and Miami, the action now moves to clay courts, with three ATP and two WTA tournaments lined up for next week.
While all the three ATP tournaments, in Houston, Estoril and Marrakech, are ATP 250 events, WTA will witness a WTA 500 in Charleston and a WTA 250 in Bogota.
Here we analyze the five tournaments and look ahead at what we can expect over the next one week.
Can Jabeur Find Form in Charleston?
Over the last three years, Ons Jabeur has found a lot of success in Charleston. While she was a semifinalist in 2021, she finished runner-up to Belinda Bencic in 2022, before beating the latter and clinching the title in 2023.
Can the world no. 6 defend her title on the green clay this year? She is seeded no. 2, but has gone through a rough patch this year. Jabeur is 2-5 in 2024 and is currently on a four-match losing streak.
She has a first-round bye in Charleston but could face the Miami Open champion Danielle Collins in her tournament opener in the second round.
Collins, who beat Elena Rybakina for the title in Miami, is 20-8 this season. If she comes to Charleston, she will meet Paula Badosa in the first round.
She is expected to win her opener and will also be the favourite against the defending champion, if the two meet in the second round.
If Jabeur doesn’t go on to defend her crown then who could win the title? One of the contenders is top seed Jessica Pegula, who is fresh from a quarterfinal finish in Miami. She was also a semifinalist in Charleston last year.
The American has not been as consistent as she would have liked to be in 2024, but given her recent form, she will be looking to get off to a fast start in the second round against either Alize Cornet or Amanda Anisimova.
Pegula, however, could run into her Miami Open-conquerer Ekaterina Alexandrova in the quarterfinal. The top seed has a better record on clay than the Russian though, which should allow her to reach the final four stage.
Facing Pegula in a potential semifinal could be the local hope Emma Navarro. The 20-year-old lost to Pegula in the round of 16 in Miami, but will be looking for revenge in Charleston.
Navarro, who is 20-7 in 2024, is seeded No. 10 in the tournament and has a first-round bye. She could face Arantxa Rus in the second round and eighth seed Madison Keys in a potential third round.
We expect Navarro to reach the last eight stage and set-up a potential matchup with fourth seed Daria Kasatkina, before a potential semifinal against Pegula.
Predicted Charleston Open QF
Pegula v Alexandrova
Navarro v Kasatkina
Sakkari v Haddad Maia
Svitolina v Collins
Predicted Charleston Open Semis
Pegula v Navarro
Sakkari v Svitolina
Photo Credit: si.robi
Maria Aiming for a Bogota Hat-trick
After lifting the Bogota Open trophy in 2022 and 2023, Germany’s Tatjana Maria will now be aiming to win the title in 2024.
Seeded no. 2, she will begin her campaign against Anna Bondar in the first round and could meet local hope Emiliana Arango in a potential second round.
Maria’s potential quarterfinal could be against the 2021 champion and sixth seed Camila Osorio; while her semifinal opponent could be either fifth seed Nadia Podoroska or 2022 runner-up Laura Pigossi. We are backing the latter to be the dark horse in the tournament, which has Marie Bouzkova as the top seed.
Bouzkova is playing in Bogota for the first time but brings a tough 5-8 season record into the tournament.
Predicted Bogota Semis
Marie Bouzkova v Christina Bucsa
Tatjana Maria v Laura Pigossi
Other Prediction:
Maria could be crowned champion once again.
Hard to Stop Ruud in Estoril
Casper Ruud has displayed tremendous form this season and things are only going to get better from here on as the Norwegian prepares for his first tournament of the season on his favourite surface, the clay.
Nine of Ruud’s 10 career titles have come on the surface, with one of those coming in Estoril last year.
The 25-year-old is 18-5 in 2024, which includes two runner-up finishes in Los Cabos and Acapulco and a quarterfinal finish in Indian Wells. With such form behind him, it’s hard to pick someone over him as the tournament favourite.
However, he will have a few tough matches on his way, including a potential second round against Federico Coria, who was a semifinalist in Cordoba and Buenos Aires this year and has already played 20 matches on clay.
If Ruud gets past the Argentine, he will most likely face Marton Fucsovics in a potential quarterfinal and fourth seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a potential semifinal.
The bottom half is headlined by second seed Hubert Hurkacz and the third seed Lorenzo Musetti. Hurkacz brings a season record of 15-8 into the tournament. While he has been a consistent performer this year, he is yet to produce a significant career result on clay.
Hurkacz is expected to get through his initial round against Joao Fonseca or a qualifier, but he will have his task cut out against eighth seed Domonik Koepfer in a potential quarterfinal.
Musetti meanwhile is coming off a decent showing in Miami and is also a solid clay court player. Expect him to reach at least the semifinals.
Estoril Open Prediction
Ruud to defend the title successfully.
Photo Credit: si.robi
Tough for Tiafoe in Houston
Last year, when Frances Tiafoe headed to Houston, he was brimming with confidence, having featured in the semifinals of the Indian Wells Open, won all five of his matches at the United Cup and also played in two other quarterfinals.
It is that confidence that had helped him lift the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships trophy in 2023 by beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the final.
This year, Tiafoe has not been as sharp as he was at this time of the season last year and a 7-7 record is proof of that.
Tiafoe’s best in 2024 came in Delray Beach, where he was a semifinalist. Otherwise the American has been mostly quiet and lacked consistency, which makes us believe that he will find things difficult against a tough field.
Ben Shelton is the top seed for the tournament, but the lefty is yet to prove himself on clay. However, he is expected to make the semis.
Shelton will play either Zizou Bergs or a qualifier in the second round and most likely Brandon Nakashima in a potential quarterfinal. However, Etcheverry could halt his run in a potential semifinal.
Tiafoe could meet Los Cabos champion Jordan Thompson in a potential quarterfinal and second seed Francesco Cerundolo in a potential semifinal.
Also in the mix is Luciano Darderi, who was outstanding on South American clay this year. The Italian claimed the title in Cordoba and was a quarterfinalist in Santiago.
He begins his campaign against Denis Kudla and a win would pit him against Cerundolo in round 2. Can he pull off a surprise? Seems unlikely against the Rio semifinalist.
Predicted Houston Semis
Shelton v Etcheverry
Tiafoe v Cerundolo
Djere Aiming to End Struggles in Marrakech
Laslo Djere has not been in best of forms this year and a 3-6 season record is a testament of that. However, things could change for the Serb on his favourite surface in Marrakech, where he is the top seed.
This is the fourth time that Djere is participating in the ATP 250 in Morocco and his best came in 2022, when he made it to the semifinals.
Djere will begin his campaign in the round of 16 against either Hugo Gaston or a qualifier. He could then meet Flavio Cobolli in a potential quarterfinal and either the in-form Facundo Diaz Acosta or the defending champion Roberto Carballés Baena in a potential semifinal.
Diaz Acosta, who won the Buenos Aires Open this year, is 9-3 on clay in 2024. We expect him to win his first round against a qualifier and the potential second round against Arthur Rinderknech, before setting up a potential quarterfinal with the defending champion.
Like last year, Carballés Baena is unseeded again and just like last year, he may have to beat Dan Evans again. The Spaniard begins his title defence against a qualifier in the first round and a win could mean a meeting with the third seed Evans in the second round.
The bottom half will be led by second seed Sebastian Ofner and fourth seed Lorenzo Sonego, but neither have displayed good form this season.
That half also has some solid players like Matteo Berrettini, Stan Wawrinka and clay specialist Albert Ramos Vinolas, but we think it is the Rio runner-up and seventh seed Mariano Navone, who is likely to go deep. Also, keep an eye on Luca Van Aasche and Sumit Nagal, who are both capable of pulling off surprises.
Predicted Marrakesh Semis:
Djere v Diaz Acosta
Navone v Van Aasche
Are you enjoying this newsletter? If yes, we hope you can help us in one of the following ways!
Book an advert that will be featured on TennisWorldLive.substack.com by emailing me at tennisworldlive.com@gmail.com
Forward this to a tennis fan & invite them to subscribe by clicking on the button below.