Wimbledon 2024 Predictions: One of Most Open Wimbledon in Recent Times?
Djokovic's injury, Alcaraz's grass form, Swiatek's record on grass under microscope.
There is a lot at stake at this year’s Wimbledon Championships. Novak Djokovic is one win away from drawing level with Roger Federer’s record of 8 titles at the grass-court major, but the second seed has not featured in a single final this year, which will be a matter of concern for him.
Given his current form, Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to defend the title he won last year by beating Djokovic in the final.
The 2023 final ended Djokovic’s 34-match unbeaten streak at Wimbledon, and for the first time since 2002, a player other than Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Andy Murray was crowned the Wimbledon champion.
Federer won his first in 2003, and since then, the top four have dominated for two decades. But last year’s tournament indicated that the next generation's big three are slowly taking over. Alcaraz won the title, while Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev were the semifinalists.
This year, Sinner won the Australian Open and became the world No. 1 after his semifinal finish at Roland Garros.
The 22-year-old comes into his fourth Wimbledon as the top seed, and having won the Halle Open last week, he will be brimming with confidence.
However, he has been handed a tough draw. He should win the opener against Yannick Hanfmann without much fuss, but could run into 2021 finalist and this year’s Stuttgart runner-up Matteo Berrettini in the second round, in what could turn out to be a first-week classic.
Sinner is on a collision course to meet fifth seed Medvedev in the quarterfinal and third seed Alcaraz in the semifinal.
For Djokovic, the road to the finals may not feel as complex as that of Sinner’s or Alcaraz’s.
The Serb kicks off his campaign against qualifier Vit Kopriva. He could face 15th seed Holger Rune in the fourth round, seventh seed Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinal, and one of fourth seed Alexander Zverev, sixth seed Andrey Rublev, or 11th seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinal.
If Djokovic finds form early, he could go deep once again in what’s been a happy hunting tournament for him.
Just like the men’s tournament, the women’s event will be a tough one as well. Since 2017, the event has been held six times, and there have been six different champions.
It has been an open event in recent times, and it won’t be a surprise if a new champion emerges once again. Could that be top seed Iga Swiatek?
The Polish player has featured in just one quarterfinal in her four Wimbledon appearances. However, the 23-year-old world No. 1 is in stunning form this year.
She has an overall record of 45-4 in 2024 and is currently on a 19-match unbeaten run, having won the Madrid, Rome, and French Opens in a row.
Swiatek, who plays Sofia Kenin in the opener, could meet the in-form Yulia Putintseva in the third round, which could be a huge obstacle for her.
If Swiatek goes deep, she could face sixth seed and defending champion Marketa Vondrousova in the quarterfinals and fourth seed Elena Rybakina in the semifinals.
In the bottom half, second seed CoCo Gauff and third seed Aryna Sabalenka are on a collision course for a semifinal meeting.
While the prime focus will be on the top four seeds in the women’s draw, players like two-time finalist Ons Jabeur, Berlin champion Jessica Pegula, French Open finalist Jasmine Paolini, local hope Katie Boulter, and two-time semifinalists Elina Svitolina and Victoria Azarenka will draw a lot of attention.
Also in focus will be the 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva, who reached her maiden major semifinal at the French Open this year. Last year, she was in the fourth round of her Wimbledon debut, and there are huge expectations from the teen this year as well.
While the top guns are expected to make a good start, a few shocks are expected along the way. Below, we take a look at a few predictions for the first week at SW19.
Photo Credit: si.robi
Can Draper Send Zverev Packing Early?
Fourth seed Alexander Zverev has been one of the most consistent top performers this season.
His 37-11 record in 2024 includes a runner-up finish at the French Open, a title in Rome and semifinal finishes at the Australian Open and the Miami Open among other significant performances.
But can he prosper on grass? Zverev did make it to the semifinals in Halle before falling to Hubert Hurkacz.
However the three wins in that tournament came against lower ranked players in Oscar Otte, Lorenzo Sonego and Arthur Fils.
Ranked no. 4, Zverev has never reached the last eight stage at Wimbledon, having made the round of 16 twice in his past seven appearances.
How far can he go in 2024?
While we expect Zverev to win his opener against Roberto Carballes Baena and his second round against Marcos Giron (who is likely to win opener against British wild card Henry Searle), he could be knocked out in the third round by the 28th seed local hope Jack Draper.
Draper is in excellent form on grass this year. He won the Stuttgart Open title by beating Berrettini in the final and then knocked out Carlos Alcaraz in the second round in Queen’s before falling to Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal.
The 22-year-old Draper is playing his third main draw at Wimbledon and there is a strong chance of him upsetting the world no. 4 on what isn’t the German player’s favourite surface.
Shapovalov Could Reach the Fourth Round
2021 semifinalist Denis Shapovalov may be struggling for form this year, but there is a good chance of him making it to the round of 16 this year. We’re backing him in his section of the draw for his experience at SW19.
Currently ranked no. 120 in the world, the former no. 10 was in the fourth round last year as well.
This year, he has a 12-16 record, but he did make it to the third rounds in Miami, Madrid and the French Opens. On grass, he featured in two tournaments in the tune-up to Wimbledon and returned a 1-2 record.
So not much to read there, but the Canadian has the ability to lift his game in big tournaments and he will be looking to do that in the opening round against clay court specialist and 19th seed Nicolas Jarry.
Jarry had made it to the third round in what was his best of four appearances at Wimbledon last year.
But he has not played on grass this year and is coming off a first round defeat at the French Open. So Shapovalov’s experience makes him a slight favourite in that match and we could see a seed go out early there.
In the second round, he could meet Daniel Altmaier, who begins against a British wild card Arthur Fery, while in the third round Shapovalov could face the 14th seed Ben Shelton, who has not been in poor form recently and brings a 1-3 grass record into the tournament.
We expect Shapovalov to win that battle as well and set-up a fourth round match-up with top seed Jannik Sinner. We don’t see Sinner losing that match, however, Shapovalov is likely to take down two seeds on his way to the fourth round.
Nakashima and Thompson Will Be Aiming to Reach Last 16
Brandon Nakashima and Jordan Thompson are other unseeded players who could knock out a couple of seeds in the first week.
The world no. 64 Nakashima will be featuring in the tournament for the fourth time. While he got knocked out in the first rounds in 2021 and 2023, he made it to the round of 16 in 2022.
Nakashima is 6-3 on grass this year. He was a semifinalist at the Surbiton Challenger and the Stuttgart Open but fell in the round of 16 at Queen’s. Overall he has a good record on grass and is 41-18 across levels, across surfaces this year.
Nakashima will begin his campaign against 18th seed Sebastian Baez. The latter does not have a great record on grass and is 0-2 on the surface this year. Nakashima’s superior record on grass makes him the favourite in the opener. We expect him to win the opener and he is likely to meet Jordan Thompson in the second round.
That is going to be an interesting contest as Thompson also brings good form to Wimbledon.
The Aussie, ranked no. 39th in the world, defeated Holger Rune and Taylor Fritz en route the semifinals at Queen’s last week. He will take on Pavel Kotov in the first round and is expected to win that contest.
Thompson’s best results in his seven appearances at the Wimbledon is a third round finish in 2021, so the tournament has never been a good one for him. But he is a solid grass court player and won the only meeting against Nakashima on grass last year at Wimbledon.
So despite Nakashima having a 3-2 head-to-head lead, we think Thompson will have a slight edge in this contest.
The winner of that second round contest may have to deal with 16th seed Ugo Humbert in the third round. Neither of them has faced Humbert at the tour level, but given the Frenchman’s struggles on grass this year, both will be fancying their chances against him.
Humbert did reach the semifinal in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, but he did it by beating Arthur Fils and Gijs Brouwer in the tournament. He then lost in the opening rounds in Queen’s and Mallorca.
So Humbert is coming in on the back of a three-match losing streak and could be beaten by either Nakashima or Thompson in the third round.
Thompson could upset Humbert in the third round and make it to the last 16.
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Ruud Could Go Out Early Again, Paul Likely to Reach Quarters, Chance for RBA To Rise Again
Section 4 of the top half is led by eighth seed Casper Ruud, but the Norwegian has had little success on grass in his career.
While he has a fantastic 39-11 overall record this year, a disappointing 5-8 career record on grass is a clear indicator of his struggles on the surface and in his four previous Wimbledon appearances, he has two first round and two second round defeats. What’s in store this year? He has an extremely tough opener against Alex Bolt.
The Aussie is ranked no.234th in the world but he has played plenty of Futures and Challenger matches on grass this year and as a result brings an 18-2 season record on grass to the competition.
He is coming off three qualifying round wins and will be a tricky opponent for Ruud, who is yet to feature on grass this year.
If Ruud manages to beat Bolt, he could be up against another tough opponent in Domink Koepfer in the second round. Koepfer has beaten Halle semifinalist Zhichen Zhang and Felix Auger-Aliassime on grass this year. He has a better record on grass than Ruud and could stop the Norwegian in the second round.
Ruud or Koepfer may meet Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round. The Spaniard, who was a semifinalist in 2019, is coming off a solid run in Mallorca, where he beat Taro Daniela and Humbert en route to the quarterfinal, where he was beaten by Gael Monfils in the final set.
We expect him to be the dark horse to reach the second week from this section, where he is likely to meet the 12th seed Tommy Paul in the round of 16.
Paul won the Queen’s Club title this year and is 27-10 in 2024. He is likely to make the quarterfinals from this section of the draw.
Predicted Wimbledon 2024 Men’s Round of 16
Sinner v Shapovalov
Medvedev v Dimitrov
Alcaraz v Thompson
Paul v Bautista Agut
Rublev v Tsitsipas
Fritz v Draper
Hurkacz v De Minaur
Djokovic v Rune
*Note, the above matchups are not based on seedings.
Tomljanovic, Potapova Major Hurdles on Ostapenko’s Path to Round of 16
No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko had a great start to the season, winning the titles in Adelaide and Linz but as the tour moved to clay, she went out of form.
In the past six tournaments, she has reached just one quarterfinal in Rome, while she is 1-2 from her two tournaments on grass.
At the Wimbledon, she was a semifinalist in 2017 and a quarterfinalist in 2018, but the Latvian may find the going tough this year. She opens against Ajla Tomljanovic, who has received a wild card for the tournament.
The Aussie, ranked no. 135th in the world, was out of action for almost a year due to a knee injury.
She has played little since her return from injury this year, but brings an 8-2 grass record to Wimbledon. This includes a run from qualifiers to quarterfinal at the ITF Surbiton and a runner-up finish in Birmingham.
Tomljanovic was a quarterfinalist in Wimbledon in 2021 and in 2022, but she did not take part in 2023 due to the injury.
She is returning to Wimbledon in good form this year and she could well beat the 13th seed in the opening round.
Tomljanovic could reach the fourth round of the tournament to set-up a potential match-up with top seed Swiatek.
Tomljanovic’s third round opponent could be Anastasia Potapova. We are backing Potapova to beat Bernarda Pera in the first round and 23rd seed Carolina Garcia in a potential second round.
We are backing Tomljanovic over Potapova, after the former won their latest meeting in the Birmingham semifinal.
In case Tomljanovic falls to Ostapenko in the first round, Potapova could topple Ostapenko in the third round, based on their recent forms.
Most likely, we expect Tomljanovic to reach the fourth round in that section of the draw.
Qualifier Galfi Could Reach Third Round
Dalma Galfi was in the third round of Wimbledon last year and the Hungarian qualifier could once again reach the round of 32 this year.
The 25-year-old world no. 128 is 8-1 on grass this season. She went from qualifiers to the semifinal at the Rosmalen Open, only to fall to Bianca Andreescu.
Then in the Wimbledon qualifiers, she came back from a set down twice to win the first two rounds, before beating Olga Danilovic in straight sets in the final qualifying round.
She will begin her campaign against Egypt’s Mayar Sherif, who has far less experience on grass than Galfi. We expect Galfi to continue her momentum in the first round and set-up a potential second round against Danielle Collins.
The 11th seed Collins has been in stunning form this year (her final at the tour level), but when it comes to grass, she has a career record of 7-10, which clearly suggests that grass is not her preferred surface.
Galfi is expected to have an upper hand against Collins as well and she could cause an upset to set up a potential third-round clash with 20th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia. We expect the latter to reach the round of 16 for a potential clash with defending champion Vondrousova.
Boulter Could Carry British Hopes to the Second Week
Britain’s hope will rest on Katie Boulter’s shoulder and the 32nd seed may not disappoint this year. She has never gone past the third round at Wimbledon, but this year could be different.
However, that may require a huge upset win over fifth seed Jessica Pegula in a potential third round.
Pegula, a quarterfinalist last year, will begin her campaign against Ashlyn Krueger. She won the Berlin Open title last week where she beat Coco Gauff in the semifinal and Anna Kalinskaya in the final.
That win over Gauff would have been a huge confidence booster for her. Against Boulter, the fifth seed will be favored by most pundits. However, Boulter, backed by the Britons on her home turf, may be a difficult player to contend with.
Boulter has played a lot more than Pegula on grass and she also beat the American in their only meeting at the United Cup this year.
So if the two meet in the third round it could be a close one which could go either way. We won’t be surprised to see Boulter pulling off a shock win.
Predicted Wimbledon 2024 Women’s Fourth Round
Swiatek v Tomljanovic
Vondrousova v Haddad Maia
Rybakina v Samsonova
Jabeur v Boulter/Pegula
Sakkari v Pavlyuchenkova**
Sabalenka v Kasatkina
Paolini v Keys
Gauff v Azarenka
** We are backing Pavlyuchenkova over the eighth seed Qinwen Zheng as the former is far more experienced than the Chinese player on grass. Not a regular on grass any more, but still Pavlyuchenkova’s past experience stands her in good stead. Other players who could top both Pavlyuchenkova and Zheng in that section of the draw are Zhu Lin or Irina Camelia Begu.
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I don't see why the top players get a bye into the second round, I think it is unfair to the other players everyone should start of the same it means they are not as tired as the tournament goes on 😒